Larry Ness | NBA Sides Thu, 06/03/10 - 9:05 PM
triple-dime bet 702 LAL -5.5 (-110) BetUS vs 701 BOS
Analysis: My 10* NBA Game of the Year is on the LA Lakers at 9:05 ET.
The NBA has had its sights set on a Kobe and LeBron showdown for the NBA Finals for two straight years now and gone 0-for-2. However, the league can't be unhappy with yet another Celtics/Lakers matchup. Boston is in its 21st Finals and the Lakers in their 31st, as the league's two most storied franchises meet for the 12th time. Boston won the first eight meetings (the first seven of which came no later than 1969), LA the next two ('85 and '87) and then after a 21-season gap, the Celtics made it 9-2 all-time vs the Lakers by winning the title in 2008. The Celtics won that series in six games, while going a perfect 6-0 ATS. However, this is a much different (and better) LA team. Kobe's in "the zone" right now, entering this series having scored 30 or more points in 10 of his last 11 games (32.9 PPG during that stretch). Gasol was just "finding his way" with the Lakers back in 2008 but now is one of the league's premier players, averaging 20.0 PPG and 10.9 RPG this postseason, while shooting 56.5 percent. Bynum is not 100% but he's available, which is something he very much wasn't back in 2008. Odom is off a terrific 2009 postseason in which LA won it's 15th title plus this postseason, has improved in each round. He averaged 7.8-6.8 vs the Thunder, 9.5-10.0 vs the Jazz and 14.0-11.8 vs the Suns. Then there is Artest, who like Odom, has improved his scoring in each round. He averaged just 8.2 (34.4%) vs the Thunder, then 12.3 (42.6%) vs the Jazz and 14.3 (45.9) vs the Suns. Back in 2008, Kobe had to guard Pierce, which affected his ability to score offensively. This time around, Artest will draw that assignment and let me point out what he was able to do with Durant, the NBA's youngest-ever scoring champ in round one. Durant averaged 30.1 PPG on 47.6 percent shooting during the regular season but Artest held him to 25.0 PPG and more importantly, just 35.0 percent from the floor, including a woeful 28.5 perce‡nt on threes. Boston's "Big Three" was in its first season together back in 2008 but all three are two years older now and KG really seems to be wearing down, looking far less than 100 percent. He averaged just 10.3 PPG while shooting only 38.9 percent vs the Magic, after averaging 15.8 and 18.8 PPG in Boston's first two series, on 53.9 percent shooting. Pierce averaged 24.3 PPG on 51.2 percent shooting vs Orlando, after averaging only 13.5 PPG on 34.5 percent shooting vs the Cavs. His assignment vs Cleveland was LeBron and that clearly hurt his offense and expect a similar situation in The Finals, as Pierce figures to be Kobe's "main" defender. Rondo was spectacular vs the Cavs (20.7-6.3-11.8 on 54.1 percent shooting) but vs the Heat and Magic (14.5-4.7-9.0), his numbers were more in line with his regular season stats (13.7-4.4-9.8). Rondo's VERY GOOD, he's not GREAT! I don't trust Rasheed to show any consistency, as he scored in double digits in just FIVE of 17 postseason games this year, scoring four or less NINE times (has averaged 6.5-2.3). As for Big Baby, he's had one game of note per series (23 in game vs Miami, 15 in Game 5 vs Cle and 17 in Game 3 vs Orlando). Davis has averaged 5.2 PPG in Boston's other 14 playoff games. LA is a dominating 28-3 SU at home the last three postseasons (although right around .500 ATS) but note in their first home game of each of their 11 previous series, has gone 10-1, winning those 10 games by an average margin of 9.0 PPG. That's not an overwhelming margin of victory but's it is about two buckets over the opening pointspread for Game 1. LA opened last year's Finals with a resounding 100-75 win over the Magic and while this year's veteran Celtics team is NOT the inexperienced Magic, I see the Lakers winning very comfortably in Game 1.
Good luck...Larry
